01Your rules
We write your rules back so a computer can follow them, and you confirm them before anything runs.
| Market and timeframe | USDJPY, 4H chart, all sessions |
| Bias | Trendlines from the Monthly down to the 4H, drawn from xxxxxxxxxx swings |
| Setup | A 4H candle closes past a live trendline. Two zones open: the broken line and the xxxxxx gap |
| Entry trigger | 4 triggers at a zone (xxxxxxxx, xxxxxx, xxxxxxx, xxxxxxxxx). Entry at the trigger candle's close |
| Stop | Behind the most recent xxxxxxx swing. Skip the trade if under 20 or over 120 pips |
| Exit | Trailing stop, xxxxxxxxx after +3R. No fixed target |
| Limits | Max 1 buy and 1 sell open. Line zone 3 trades, gap zone 2 trades, 60 candles each |
| Risk | 1% of the account per trade |
02Test setup
MarketUSDJPY 4H
PeriodJan 2020 – Oct 2026
Length6.8 years
DataTradingView (FXCM)
Every 4H candle is processed in order, using only closed candles. No peeking at the future.
03Costs
Cost per trade1.5 pips
CoversSpread + commission
Costs are taken off every trade. Many strategies that "work" stop working here.
04Results
Trades555
Win rate33.5%
Total profit+191.4R
Per trade+0.35R
Average win+2.65R
Average loss−0.83R
Worst drop at 1%14%
Longest losing streak8
Equity curve, in R
At 1% risk per trade, $1,000 would have grown to about $5,620.
05Honest verdict
Edge: yes, on this data, after costs.
- 2 in 3 trades lose. The profit comes from bigger winners (+2.65R vs −0.83R).
- Fragile: just 10 of 555 trades made 77% of the profit. Skip setups and most of the edge is gone.
- The worst streak was 8 losses. With these odds, expect up to about 13 in a row, even when every rule is followed.
06Disclaimer
Backtest results, not a promise of future profit. Not financial advice. Not included: slippage beyond the cost above, news spikes, swap fees, and execution delays. Live results can be worse than a backtest.
What we need from you: the 11 core items
- Market and timeframe
- Trading hours or sessions
- Bias: how you decide buy or sell
- Setup: what must be in place
- Entry trigger and entry price
- Stop loss
- Exit or target
- Limits: max trades, max open
- Risk % per trade
- 2–3 example trades (screenshots help)
- Your broker's costs (spread, commission)