01Your current rules
Your rules as they stand today, before any change, written back for you to confirm.
| Market and timeframe | USDJPY, 4H chart, all sessions |
| Bias | Trendlines from the Monthly down to the 4H, drawn from xxxxxxxxxx swings |
| Setup | A 4H candle closes past a live trendline. Two zones open: the broken line and the xxxxxx gap |
| Entry trigger | 4 triggers at a zone (xxxxxxxx, xxxxxx, xxxxxxx, xxxxxxxxx). Entry at the trigger candle's close |
| Stop | Behind the most recent xxxxxxx swing. Skip the trade if under 20 or over 120 pips |
| Exit | Trailing stop, xxxxxxxxx after +3R. No fixed target |
| Limits | Max 1 buy and 1 sell open. Line zone 3 trades, gap zone 2 trades, 60 candles each |
| Risk | 1% of the account per trade |
02Test setup
Every 4H candle is processed in order, using only closed candles. No peeking at the future.
03Costs
Costs are taken off every trade. Many strategies that "work" stop working here.
04Component breakdown
We remove one part at a time and re-run the whole test. The drop in profit shows what that part is worth.
| Component | Worth (TradingView) | Worth (broker) | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-pip minimum stop | +97.1R | +68.8R | Strongest |
| Line zone | +96.3R | +16.6R | Strongest |
| Re-break trigger | +59.9R | +25.3R | Strongest |
| FVG (gap) zone | +52.5R | +31.4R | Solid |
| Reclaim trigger | +51.2R | +20.0R | Solid |
| Rejection trigger | +37.5R | −3.0R | Solid |
| Two-speed trail | +19.4R | +16.4R | Solid |
| Doji + confirmation | +11.0R | +8.6R | Weakest |
| 120-pip maximum stop | +4.0R | +23.4R | Weakest |
05Recommended changes
- Keep: the 20-pip minimum stop and the line zone. They carry the system. Without the minimum stop, profit falls by half.
- Watch: the rejection trigger. Strong on TradingView, slightly negative on broker candles.
- Weakest links: the doji trigger and the 120-pip cap add little. Keep them for now, and re-test them with more data.
- Fixed in the upgrade: the 5-pip break filter, the 100-pip stop cap, 1 re-break per zone and a 50% wick rule were all holding the system back.
06Old vs upgraded
| Old system | Upgraded system | |
|---|---|---|
| Rules | 5-pip break, 100-pip max stop, 1 re-break, 50% wick | Any break, 120-pip max stop, 2 re-breaks, 60% wick |
| Trades | 548 | 555 |
| Total profit (TradingView) | +114.4R | +191.4R |
| Per trade | +0.21R | +0.35R |
| Win rate | 29.9% | 33.5% |
| Worst drop at 1% | 16% | 14% |
| $1,000 at 1% becomes | $2,660 | $5,620 |
| Broker candles | +106.1R | +113.9R |
Same market, same period, same costs. The upgrade made +67% more profit with a smaller worst drop.
07Risk plan
| Risk per trade | $1,000 becomes | Worst drop in test | 1-in-20 worst drop |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1% (recommended) | $5,621 | 14% | 30% |
| 2% (max) | $22,752 | 26% | 52% |
| 3% | $69,879 | 36% | 67% |
The 1-in-20 drop comes from reshuffling the same trades 10,000 times. Above 2%, an unlucky run could take half the account.
08Honest verdict
The upgrade is worth it: +67% profit, smaller worst drop.
- The strongest parts were already there. The gains came from removing filters that blocked good trades.
- The weakest links are small. Not every part needs to be perfect, just not harmful.
09Disclaimer
Backtest results, not a promise of future profit. Not financial advice. Not included: slippage beyond the cost above, news spikes, swap fees, and execution delays. Live results can be worse than a backtest.
What we need from you: the 11 core items
- Market and timeframe
- Trading hours or sessions
- Bias: how you decide buy or sell
- Setup: what must be in place
- Entry trigger and entry price
- Stop loss
- Exit or target
- Limits: max trades, max open
- Risk % per trade
- 2–3 example trades (screenshots help)
- Your broker's costs (spread, commission)
Plus, for this package
- What you think is weak
- Rules you refuse to change
- Live results, if any (journal or broker statement)